Weekend Box Office (November 27 - 29, 2009)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND Multiplexes will be hopping with business over the five-day Thanksgiving holiday frame as three new wide releases join forces with a string of popular holdovers to create a menu full of tasty choices for all moviegoers to enjoy. Family audiences get to choose between Disney's low-brow comedy Old Dogs and Fox's high-brow toon Fantastic Mr. Fox which both opened nationwide on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Warner Bros. aims for neglected young men with the ultraviolent Ninja Assassin. Overall, North American ticket buyers look to power the box office to a record turkey holiday.

John Travolta and Robin Williams team up for the comedy Old Dogs from director Walt Becker who enjoyed a runaway hit with Disney's Wild Hogs in 2007. This year's PG-rated entry uses the age old formula of bumbling men forced to take care of children and serves up another dose of material that is familiar, but still sells. The star combo is potent here and should draw in parents and the dumbed down humor should play well to kids. The Disney brand name will help too. Reviews have been terrible, but not unlike those for similar films. Hollywood has made a mint from having Adam Sandler, Eddie Murphy, Vin Diesel, The Rock, Ice Cube, Steve Guttenberg and others take care of kiddies. Entire families get together more often over the Thanksgiving holiday frame so groups of different generations will find this one to be safe entertainment for all. Opening Wednesday in 3,389 locations and widening to 3,425 sites on Friday, Old Dogs could take in $24M over the Friday-to-Sunday period and about $35M across the five-day Wednesday-to-Sunday span.

With teen girls seizing control of the box office with New Moon, young men have for once been left out in the cold becoming a minority. Warner Bros. hopes to earn some cash from guys sick and tired of hearing about Team Edward and Team Jacob with its martial arts actioner Ninja Assassin. Earning an R rating for 'strong bloody stylized violence throughout,' the new release comes from director James McTeigue (V for Vendetta) and producers Joel Silver and Larry & Andy Wachowski. With no major stars on screen, ads are highlighting the producers stating that the film is from the creators of The Matrix films. True, but it's also from the creators of Speed Racer. They left that part out.

Released some other time on the calendar and Ninja Assassin may have been washed out. But the marketplace is severely lacking options for young men with 2012, going into its third weekend, being the only major choice. So a lack of competition should help. Plus the massive wave of attention for Twilight in recent weeks should prompt young men to seek out a nice testosterone flick to soothe their nerves. The pic should play to the same crowd that came out for Fox's Hitman two years, also released over the turkey session. It bowed to $13.2M and a five-day of $21.1M from the same number of playdates. Now playing in 2,503 locations, Ninja Assassin may debut to around $15M with roughly $24M over five days.

Fox has generated huge numbers from just four theaters for its Wes Anderson-directed animated film Fantastic Mr. Fox over the last two weeks. Smarter and more mature than the usual toon, the PG-rated pic has earned spectacular reviews and good buzz from its base of Wes fans and is now ready for a nationwide roll out. The studio knows that this is not the usual popcorn fare that can be opened wide on the first day and needs a little time to spread its message. With many other options for families, Fox may not be a breakout smash this weekend but will set the stage for a prolonged run throughout the holidays letting early audiences sell the picture to others curious to see it. Claymation films Chicken Run and Wallace and Gromit also won raves from critics and had leggy runs. Fantastic Mr. Fox expanded to 2,027 theaters on Wednesday, and adds six more sites on Friday, and may find itself with about $12M for the weekend and $17M over five days.

Disney platforms its big holiday season toon The Princess and the Frog in solo houses in New York and Los Angeles to generate heat ahead of its December 11 nationwide launch. With higher than normal ticket prices at the pair of engagements, the studio is making an event out of the film hoping to generate excitement and exclusivity. The per-theater average will be abnormally large due to the special pricing. After two weeks, it will face far less competition for the family audience when it goes national and legs should be good as children get out for their holiday breaks.

The monster heartthrobs of The Twilight Saga: New Moon have no plans to give up the number one spot over the turkey frame. The Summit release is powering through the week with strong sales collecting $10.5M on Monday and $11.5M on Tuesday - incredible grosses for weekdays outside of the summer. One year ago, Twilight fell by 62% in its second round, also Thanksgiving. New Moon is coming off of a much more massive opening, but it also will face less female-skewing competition from new releases. That could leave a decline of about 65% for this weekend for a stunning $50M tally. New Moon's ten-day haul would climb to a scorching $243M.

Sandra Bullock tackled the naysayers last weekend with the potent $34.1M bow of her football drama The Blind Side. The uplifting sports saga should play well over Thanksgiving drawing in a broad audience with its solid word-of-mouth. A 20% drop to about $27M could result giving Warner Bros. $79M after ten days.

Sony's disaster hit 2012 looks to fall by 35% to around $17M which would boost the cume to $136M. Yuletide pics typically see their sales rebound over Thanksgiving, especially since Friday is a day off for kids and parents. Disney's A Christmas Carol may climb 15% to roughly $14M and put its total right near the $100M mark. Planet 51 has not been too well-received but the holiday will prevent a huge fall. Look for a 15% decline to around $10M for a $27M sum in ten days.

Get earlier box office updates and analysis by following BoxOfficeGuru.com on Twitter.

Check the UPDATED charts for the Top Hits of 2009, Top All-Time Opening Weekends, and Top November Openings.

For reviews of The Twilight Saga: New Moon, Planet 51, and Fantastic Mr. Fox visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR Bella Swan and company were beaten by formulaic comedy and a cartoon dog over the holiday. The Vince Vaughn-Reese Witherspoon hit Four Christmases debuted at number one with a solid $31.1M over three days and a stellar $46.1M across the five-day holiday span. Warner Bros. found its way to $120.1M. In its second lap, Disney's 3D toon Bolt climbed up a notch to second place with $26.6M inching up 1% over its opening weekend bow thanks to holiday moviegoing. Twilight plunged 62% to $26.3M for third and Quantum of Solace followed in fourth with $18.8M. Fox stumbled with its expensive epic Australia which landed in fifth with $14.8M and a long weekend take of $20M. The Hugh Jackman-Nicole Kidman drama ended up with a disappointing $49.6M domestically but did understandably better overseas.

Marketplace - Shop for DVDs, electronics, books, and posters at discounted prices:

LAST WEEKEND's TOP 20

Last Updated: November 25, 2009 at 11:45AM ET