Weekend Box Office (November 13 - 15, 2009)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND Three new films will enter the top ten on Friday, each on a different mission. Sony targets the popcorn crowd with its doomsday thriller 2012 which should easily capture the top spot. Focus releases its music-driven comedic drama Pirate Radio set in 1960s England hoping to attract nostalgic adults. And coming out of left field, Lionsgate expands its little film that could, awards contender Precious, which will rocket up the charts despite still being in limited play. Overall, the North American box office should once again fall below last year's numbers although fortunes will change over the following frame once New Moon attacks.

King of destruction Roland Emmerich breaks the record for most consecutive decades directing films in which the White House gets destroyed (2) with his latest disaster film 2012. The PG-13 film follows the standard formula for the genre - science eggheads discover that a major catastrophe is right around the corner and an assortment of characters must fight to survive as the world crumbles all around them. And for some reason, there's a divorced couple in the middle of it all that reconciles by the end. John Cusack, Amanda Peet, Danny Glover, Thandie Newton, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Oliver Platt, and Woody Harrelson make up the main cast in the latest film from the director of Independence Day, Godzilla, The Day After Tomorrow, and 10,000 B.C.

Though they get little respect, disaster movies are popular with the masses and are reliable sellers of tickets, popcorn, and soda. Audiences usually know that they're not going to get a great story, but instead sit back and enjoy the special effects and all the destruction. With 2012, Emmerich has widened the deficit with visuals that are even more impressive while the script got even more ridiculous. But the effects and the intriguing doomsday plot should sell the picture in the short term. Word of mouth may not be very good so don't expect much damage on the charts after Thanksgiving weekend.

As the only major new wide release this weekend, 2012 will enjoy a lack of competition which should help it reach a broader audience that has nothing else to see. Last weekend's champ A Christmas Carol is the only other film set to make more than $10M this frame. Sony previously set 2012 for a July 10 release but bumped the film out of summer and into mid-November which has proven so successful for action and effects films like James Bond and Harry Potter installments. Summer is typically more packed with action spectacles so 2012 would stand out more as a unique entertainer this time of year. Warner Bros. then moved Sherlock Holmes from this weekend to Christmas to escape the direct battle.

Disaster films, especially ones with global settings, do incredibly well overseas and this one will be no different. Final grosses could easily be double in international waters. Bad reviews shouldn't hurt business too much since most critics agree that the special effects are impressive and that's what moviegoers are looking for. Sony's marketing push has been strong so awareness is high and appeal is solid across age, gender, and race lines. A running time of more than two-and-a-half hours will test the patience of audiences, but multiplexes should be able to book enough auditoriums to satisfy demand. Opening in over 3,000 theaters, 2012 might open to around $48M this weekend.

Targeting the hippie generation of the 1960s, Focus unleashes Pirate Radio starring Philip Seymour Hoffman as the leader of a rebellious group of DJs that broadcast rock music in England when it was banned winning over young fans in the process. The R-rated film comes from writer/director Richard Curtis (Love Actually) and also stars Bill Nighy, Rhys Ifans, and Kenneth Branagh. Radio opened in April in its native UK under its original title The Boat That Rocked and now comes to North America as its final major market. It will be no easy sell here as the subject matter and cast are not big draws on this side of the Atlantic. Plus mixed reviews will hurt since Radio's older target audience will be paying attention to critics for a film like this. Docking in about 900 locations, Pirate Radio may only make off with around $4M this weekend.

Last weekend, Disney's expensive holiday offering A Christmas Carol debuted softer than expected but still managed to secure the top spot. Yuletide-themed pics in early November often have low-to-moderate drops in subsequent weeks as Thanksgiving and Christmas approach putting people more in a holiday mood. Sophomore declines include 15% for 2002's The Santa Clause 2, 15% for 2003's Elf, and 33% for 2004's The Polar Express.

Carol probably won't see a decline like the first two and instead play out more like Express which, like Carol, was also a motion capture film directed by Robert Zemeckis with an A-list megastar anchoring. The Tom Hanks flick opened on a Wednesday making its second weekend fall a bit lighter, but it also faced the openings of the PG-rated duo of National Treasure and The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie which stole away lots of families. A Christmas Carol will have less direct competition so a 30% dip may result. That would give the Carrey-as-Scrooge pic around $21M for the weekend boosting the ten-day cume to $60M.

No other holdovers are likely to break double digit millions this weekend. Michael Jackson's This Is It has fared well for a concert film by a superstar that should in theory attract the bulk of the audience upfront. The older-skewing film has seen solid business in week two and should remain in the top five, and possibly top three, during its third frame. A 40% drop would give Sony around $8M for a $69M total after 19 days of play.

A 40% decline may also be in store for The Men Who Stare at Goats which opened reasonably well last weekend. Again, a more adult crowd means that audience erosion shouldn't be as severe as for teen-oriented pics. 2012 will play to many of the same people so competition will be a factor. A weekend take of roughly $7.5M seems likely giving Overture $25M after ten days.

Universal's thriller The Fourth Kind will fall harder and could suffer a 50% plunge to $6M for a $22M total in ten days. Fellow fright film Paranormal Activity will break the $100M mark at the end of the week, probably on Friday. A 45% decline to $4.5M would leave Paramount with $104M by the end of the weekend.

After a dazzling debut in limited release last weekend, Lionsgate's awards hopeful Precious widens from 18 to 174 theaters on Friday. The R-rated inner city saga averaged a jaw-dropping $104,025 on its opening weekend prompting the distributor to take advantage of the heat and roll the film out faster than planned. A spot in the top ten is guaranteed, but with only one major new film opening and most holdovers fading away, Precious has a shot at breaking into the top five which would be a remarkable achievement from what is still a narrow release. Reaching fifth place instead of sixth will make a world of difference since so many major media outlets only report on the top five so the added publicity will put it on the radar of millions more placing the film in a terrific position as it widens further this month.

The Lee Daniels-directed pic has generated a whole new wave of buzz this week following its explosive debut and the publicity machine is continuing to generate more awareness and excitement, especially outside of the African-American community as the disturbing film attempts to find mainstream acceptance. So far the plan has worked wonders, although sustaining the heat over the coming quarter-year will be no easy task as films rise and fall during awards season as other contenders start rolling out and stealing the spotlight. This weekend, a three-day gross of about $6M could result boosting the cume to $9M.

Check the charts for the Top 20 November Openings and the Top 20 Blockbusters of 2009.

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For a review of A Christmas Carol and a  DVD review of Ice Age 3 visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR All foes feared James Bond as Sony's Quantum of Solace was the solo new release taking the top spot with a stellar $67.5M, up a remarkable 65% from Daniel Craig's first turn as 007 in Casino Royale from just two years earlier. Quantum went on to become the top grosser in the four-decade-old franchise, but not the highest ticket seller, with $168.4M domestically and over $575M worldwide. Dropping to second was the animated sequel Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa which laughed up $35M for a strong ten-day tally of $116.9M. Universal's comedy Role Models placed third with $11.2M, Disney's kidpic High School Musical 3 followed with $5.7M, and Changeling from Universal grossed $4.3M.

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Last Updated: November 12, 2009 at 10:45AM ET