Weekend Box Office (March 12 - 14, 2010)
by Gitesh Pandya
THIS WEEKEND Four new films hit the multiplexes on Friday making things extra crowded at the North American box office. Action fans get Matt Damon in the Iraq-set pic Green Zone, Twilight's Robert Pattinson headlines the romance saga Remember Me, and laughs come in the form of a pair of romantic comedies - She's Out of My League and Our Family Wedding. For the first time all year, studios have placed four new wide releases on the same frame and all will fight with Johnny Depp for some space in the marketplace.
Matt Damon and director Paul Greengrass reteam for more gritty handheld camera fun in the political thriller Green Zone. The Universal release takes place in 2003 and finds Mr. Bourne playing an American military specialist in Iraq in search of weapons of mass destruction who comes across a mysterious situation where all intelligence turns out faulty for some unknown reason. The R-rated film will play to an adult audience interested in Middle East and military affairs which makes it a tough sell. But Damon provides the kind of starpower that The Hurt Locker lacked which makes mainstream audiences give serious consideration to buying a ticket. Green could gross more in three days than the Oscar champ made in its entire run. There has been no shortage of serious R-rated options for adults in recent weeks so competition will be a factor. The studio has also been pushing this as being from the director of the last two Bourne flicks so that should add some weight. Opening in over 2,900 locations, Green Zone may collect about $18M this weekend.
Young women longing to see Robert Pattinson with less makeup on will rejoice at the arrival of the romantic drama Remember Me which the Twilight star also executive produces. Rated PG-13, the film is aimed squarely at one gender and will test the actor's drawing power outside of his hit vampire franchise. He's hoping for bigger numbers here than the weak $5.7M bow that Kristin Stewart saw last spring with her ensemble pic Adventureland. The rest of the Remember cast offers little in the way of box office muscle so the success or failure rests entirely on Pattinson's shoulders. To help entice fans, Summit will debut the new trailer to The Twilight Saga: Eclipse with Remember Me, however this tactic has had wildly different results in the past for other tentpole trailers. A ten-second clip premiered online on Wednesday to tease fans even more. Business from outside the core audience will be limited. Opening in over 1,900 theaters, Remember Me may debut to about $13M.
A nerdy average Joe with a dead-end job comes across a blonde bombshell who falls for him against all odds in the new relationship comedy She's Out of My League. The R-rated film is aimed at older teens and young adults and will try to tap into the spring audiences that came out in large numbers to similarly-rated laughers like I Love You, Man, and Forgetting Sarah Marshall which debuted to $17.8M and $17.7M, respectively. League lacks starpower so it will have to utilize its concept and the jokes in its trailer to sell itself. With Cop Out being the only other film right now serving up racy humor, Paramount does have a chance to connect with its target audience this weekend. College students on spring break will contribute a good amount to the weekend take. Stepping into more than 2,700 theaters, She's Out of My League could take in roughly $11M this weekend.
Spring is here so the time is right for a wedding film and Fox Searchlight offers just that with its new comedy Our Family Wedding which offers a meet-the-parents formula with a black groom and Latina bride. The PG-13 film stars America Ferrera along with Carlos Mencia and Oscar winner Forest Whitaker as the dueling dads. This is the Ugly Betty star's first chance to anchor a major film after having starred in a pair of The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants movies. She does have somewhat of a small-screen fan base, but luckily Wedding has other elements that will help sell tickets. The cross-cultural story should spark interest among females of at least two ethnic groups and some men may get dragged along too as dates. Playing in the fewest theaters of any new release this Friday with roughly 1,500 sites, Our Family Wedding could open to about $10M.
Johnny Depp should have no problem staying put at number one with Alice in Wonderland despite what is expected to be a large drop. Weekday sales have been solid with the Disney smash grossing $9M on Monday and $8M on Tuesday. With so much business already absorbed, it can't help but fall by a large amount. Even well-liked tentpoles like Iron Man and The Dark Knight declined by 48% and 53%, respectively, on the sophomore session. Audiences have been mostly satisfied with Alice, but four new options will also divide up the pot a bit. Look for a 55% drop to about $52M for a robust ten-day score of $200M.
Brooklyn's Finest will take a direct hit from Green Zone so a 50% decline could be in the works. That would leave Overture with $7M for the weekend and $24M in ten days. Also affected will be Shutter Island which may slide by 45% to $7M as well. The cume would climb to $106M for Paramount.
On Monday, the day after losing the Best Picture and Director races to The Hurt Locker at the Oscars, Avatar's daily grosses dropped below the $1M mark for the very first time after 80 consecutive days above that level. A 40% drop could result this weekend giving the 3D smash roughly $5M for the three-day period and $728M to date.
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Check the box office charts for the Top Opening Weekends of All-Time and the Oscar winners and grosses. For a review of Alice in Wonderland visit The Chief Report.
LAST YEAR Dwayne Johnson and Disney teamed up for the number one opening of Race to Witch Mountain which took in $24.4M in its first weekend on its way to $67.2M. The super hero flick Watchmen collapsed in its second outing tumbling 68% to $17.8M for Warner Bros. Universal's horror pic The Last House on the Left debuted in third with $14.1M which led to a $32.8M final. Rounding out the top five were Fox's sleeper hit Taken with $6.6M and Lionsgate's Madea Goes to Jail with $5.1M.
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This column is updated three times each week: Thursday (upcoming weekend's summary), Sunday (post-weekend analysis with estimates), and Monday night (actuals). Opinions expressed in this column are those solely of the author.
Last Updated: March 11, 2010 at 9:00AM ET