Phantom Menace Reader Forum

Saturday - Box Office Guru - May 8, 1999

1. "I'd like to inject my 2 cents into this debate by saying first off - it's ridiculous to talk about success in boxoffice with 1999 US dollars. We should be talking about admissions as that is the real key to what film is the most successful. There will never be a film that comes even close to GONE WITH THE WIND for performance. With inflation adjustments TPM would have to gross about 2 Billion domestic! Let's get real here... It always infuriates me when I see these figues banied about by kids across the world.... did anyone under 25 EVER mention boxoffice in the 70's or even 80's???? What is with this? It's either a sad indictment on the youth today or Gordon Gecko has become the new saviour. Everyone should really be asking this: Will TPM be any good, does it deserve to gobble X billions of sh*tty merchandise... I tend to think no film will live up to the hype and that Lucas has probably made a great timewaster but not the second coming. I've put down several thousand in bets against TPM with industry friends (I'm in da biz so I can talk da numbers, capiche?) in favour of TITANIC. Why? Because of everyone in Hollywood knows the same thing. It ain't got the crossover... can't do it, won't do it. Finito. Even with repeats from the zit-popping comic crowd - no way jose. We're talking TITANIC had dem gams my man - L.E.G.S - say it wit me... "She's got LEGS and she knows how to use em".... NB - LEGS as in staying power at the B/O."

- Caleb Lester (Auckland, New Zealand)

2. "I think that Episode 1 is going to be the biggest movie of all time. There are plenty of fanatics out there that will see this movie 20-30 times and not think twice about it, this fact alone will help it overcome Titanic's huge gross. I do however think that Titanic will remain #1 worldwide, just for the fact that Star Wars isn't nearly as big in other countries. This movie is the most anticipated event in years. People have been waiting for 16 yrs. to see the next film, and they have their chance. Some people who are not even Star Wars fans will go just to see what all the hype is about (I did it for Godzilla). This movie is going to be great. It should be fun to watch it battle Titanic for the #1 spot."

- Jeremy Curtis

3. "Release this movie around December 19th just like Titanic it would have a shot at the record. There is too much competition in its path. When movies like Wild Wild West, Big Daddy, Tarzan, Austin Powers, Eyes Wide Shut and to name a few other come out people will want to see them too. You see Titanic only had a couple of movies in its path plus it had the Oscar hype period around it. Don't get me wrong this movie will make a load of green but 600 mill and 1.8 billion,maybe that's too much to ask. My predictions are 130 million for the first weekend. 400-475 million domestic and a generous 1.1 billion worldwide for a grand total of 1.575-1.6 billion dollars .Close but no cigar."

- Chris Crofts (Banff, Canada)

4. "This movie is already getting on my nerves. The movie hasn't even come out yet and I'm tired of hearing about it. So, what if Toys-R-Us opened at 12:01 to sell the toys, so what if someone is sitting in a line waiting for tickets even as we speak. I'm not pleased at the way George Lucas is handling the release of this movie. He has made theatres sign an agreement saying that they will keep the movie in the best theatres for months! What about all of the other movies that are coming out this summer? I hate to break it to Georgie but there are some other movies that I plan to see this summer. I guess I'm the only person on the face of the Earth that feels like this and the way I feel is that this movie is a MENACE."

- Jameson Korytoski (LaGrange, Georgia)

5. "It`s difficult to see if Episode 1 will be more successful than Titanic. Titanic appealed to both men and female and Star Wars is more action, science fiction than more men related genre. But Star Wars should approach the mark set by Titanic (i see about 450 to 500 million in North America). No movie, can stop the Phantom Menace from going strong for the first 2 months, not even the overblown Wild Wild West ( i didn't like the preview i saw of it, but summer is a brainless season so it will distract the Star Wars path)."

- JeanGuy Lévesque (Montréal, Québec)

6. "I do not think Star Wars will even gross over 350 million in america. Many people want to see when it comes out but for the reason special effects, and that's it. Most people don't care about the story itself and after seeing 2 or 3 times it will not become as interesting also there are so many other films available this summer. When Titianic came out it had no competition, Star Wars has to go against, big daddy, wild wild west, eyes wide shut. and even the mummy which comes out before it does. So in all there is too much compeition and not enough interest for this movie to be a greta high grossing movie."

- Frank Duggan (New York)


- Jay Park

8. "Don't take it for granted, TPM will be huge! I not only predict that it will make a killer total box office gross of between 550 and 700 million, but that it will also have the biggest opening weekend, knocking "The Lost World's" 72 million dollar debut into oblivion. Look for TPM's five day tally to come in at about 135 million, with a large chunk of that (about 100 million) being made in the first weekend! See you at the movies!!!!"

- Darren Franks (Boca Raton, Florida)

9. "I believe Episode 1 will break opening weekend box office records with a 100m + weekend opening. 125 million is my 3 day prediction. I do not believe, however, that it will surpass the overall gross of Titanic. About 470 million is where I place the final tally domestically. Internationally, it will gross about 550 million."

- Jamal Alsaqer (Oklahoma)

10. "I think it is impossible to predict the box-office performance of the new Star Wars within $100 million. While I think it is safe to say that TPM will shatter the opening weekend record, it is hard to predict total box-office performance, especially worldwide. I think, as a worse case scenario, TPM will gross $350 million domestically. However, George Lucas is a reknowned storyteller and perfectionist so I doubt that will happen. A more reasonable estimate is $450-550 million domestically. But it is possible that he has created a truly great film, like The Empire Strikes Back, one that has a better story than Titanic. In this best-case scenario, I think $650 million domestically, as well as world-wide boxoffice all time dominance is definitely within TPM's grasp."

- Alex T

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