Weekend Box Office (December 14 - 16, 2018)
THIS WEEKEND For the thirteenth weekend this year, a Marvel comic book character will control the number one spot at the North American box office. This time, it will be the animated adventure Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse which Sony unleashes on a wave of positive buzz. The PG-rated toon has won rave reviews across the board from film critics and has also been a top contender during awards season in recent weeks in its animation category. On top of that, it's based on one of the most famous and popular super heroes of all-time.
Comic fans will take interest and many will see this one as a must-see comic book movie rather than some cartoon flick for kids. Not everybody wants another take on the Spider-Man story, but the diversity in the cast and story offers something different which will energize a large part of the moviegoing audience. And despite hefty Christmas competition, Spider-Verse should stick around for a while during the holidays as people get around to seeing it leading it to a strong final gross in the new year.
Venom just recently overperformed at the box office and those moviegoers who stayed through the credits were treated to a bonus sneak peak at Verse and you can bet that most of them will be back for this full animated story - whether now or over the weeks ahead. With schools slowing down ahead of the holidays and pre-shows kicking off at 5:00pm today, there should be a significant number of people coming out upfront. Strong buzz from those people may encourage more to show up as the weekend progresses. Entering more than 3,800 theaters, Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse might open to around $41M this weekend.
Clint Eastwood fans heard a decade ago that his last acting performance would be in Gran Torino, but the Oscar winner is back up on screen again this weekend in The Mule. The R-rated film has modest buzz but his loyal fans are still likely to take interest. Awards buzz is zero and reviews are mixed so there is no broad appeal here. Many in the older target crowd will make time over the holidays to catch this one as there is no urgent need right away to see Mule. Warner Bros. goes out into over 2,500 locations and may see around $11M this weekend. If word of mouth is solid, it could play for a while under the radar and make back its cost.
The big-budget adventure Mortal Engines kicks off its North American run in what is more of a formality since the vast majority of its worldwide gross will come from international markets. An ultimate 80% share from offshore would not be surprising. Marketed using producer Peter Jackson's name, the PG-13 sci-fi actioner has no major starpower, no well-known brand, and weak reviews. Plus action fans have Marvel super heroes in red costumes to consider this weekend. Universal sets sail in over 3,000 locations and might take in about $11M this weekend.
Fox is in the process of trying out a PG-13 cut of its R-rated summer hit Deadpool 2 titled Once Upon a Deadpool aimed at reaching older kids who have been left out of the fun. Opening Wednesday in 1,566 locations, a weekend gross of about $3M may result with the five day figure at under $5M. The limited run ends on Christmas Eve.
Toon leaders from last weekend will still be collecting slices of the pie. Three-time champ Ralph Breaks the Internet won't be in first place any more, but a 40% slide would give it just under $10M for a new cume of $154M for Disney. Universal's The Grinch should erode less, maybe by 25%, and collect roughly $11M for a total of $238M.
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LAST YEAR Scoring the second largest opening weekend of all-time, ranking behind only its own predecessor, Star Wars: The Last Jedi exploded on the scene with a monster $220M debut. While the first weekend was only 11% behind The Force Awakens, Last Jedi burned out quicker finishing with $620.2M which was 34% below TFA's record haul. Both launched in mid-December and enjoyed a run through the Christmas holidays. Fox debuted its toon entry Ferdinand with $13.4M on its way to a $84M final. Holdovers rounded out the top five with Coco at $9.9M, Wonder with $5.2M, and Justice League grossing $4.3M.
This column is updated three times each week: Thursday (upcoming weekend's summary), Sunday (post-weekend analysis with estimates), and Monday night (actuals). Opinions expressed in this column are those solely of the author.
Last Updated: December 13, 2018 at 2:10PM ET
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