Weekend Box Office (November 22 - 24, 2013)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND What could very well be the largest opening of 2013 arrives Thursday night at 8:00pm as the hotly-anticipated sequel The Hunger Games: Catching Fire prepares to shatter records and wow audiences at the same time. The PG-13 film brings the cast of the first film back and presents the second story in the book trilogy. The final book will be split into two films - a tactic that worked lucrative wonders for the Harry Potter and Twilight franchises - to be released over the next two Novembers.

All eyes are on how Catching Fire will perform in comparison to the first Hunger Games which shocked the industry with a towering $152.5M opening weekend in March of last year - unheard of for the first installment of a brand new movie franchise. But that hit was no one-week wonder. It had legs staying at number one for four weeks and found its way to $408M overall domestically. Many of those who found the film after the first three days will this time be showing up on the opening weekend so expect growth. Ticket prices will not be too much of an issue as both titles factor in IMAX screens and neither has 3D.

Catching Fire has some advantages it will capitalize on. The fan base is bigger, Jennifer Lawrence is a much larger star now after her Oscar win, November is a busier month with more box office spending, and reviews are even better than for the last film. Plus the earlier start on Thursday night at 8:00pm - which distributors always sneakily toss into Friday's gross - will mean more upfront business can be absorbed. Look for The Dark Knight Rises to lose its record for best opening weekend for a 2D film with its $160.9M. Beating the all-time record of $207.4M set by The Avengers will be very tough, but it is not completely impossible even with the lack of 3D. Fire probably will not have as low of a Saturday dip.

Teens have not been excited by much that Hollywood has had to offer since the summer so look for them to fork over heaps of cash here for a film that truly excites them and is relevant to today's pop culture. Charging into over 4,100 theaters, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire might debut in the neighborhood of $180M this weekend including Thursday night shows.

From 2004 to 2009, Vince Vaughn had a red hot run at the box office as one of the top comedy stars that was always bankable breaking $30M on opening weekend with ease. But this is a new era and the funnyman is not the draw he once was and his starpower will truly be put to the test this weekend with his latest release Delivery Man. The PG-13 film has no famous director, no major co-stars, and no brand or property that is already familiar to audiences. It's just Vince.

The man-forced-into-parenthood-and-ends-up-liking-it genre has been around for a while and often it sells. But this dish needs more ingredients in order to sell. Lackluster reviews will prompt many interested adults to just wait for this one on video later. Playing the same character again and again leads to audience erosion and that has plagued Vaughn over the past few years. That and picking unfunny projects.

The tornado that is Catching Fire will be sucking up all dollars so competition will be a major factor. This Disney release will try to capture some business from adult males in a tough marketplace. Opening in about 2,800 locations, Delivery Man might open to around $11M.

Following a two-week reign, Thor: The Dark World will fall from the top spot thanks to the arrival of a juggernaut. A 55% drop may occur giving Disney about $17M and a cume of $170M. The Marvel hero crushed the $500M global mark on Wednesday. The Best Man Holiday earned raves from audiences which could help it in the second weekend. A 45% slide may result putting the Universal hit at about $16M for the frame and $55M overall.

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Watch the NEW trailer for The Wind Rises.

For a NEW review of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR With the Thanksgiving holiday falling on this frame, and every film in the top five grossing more than $20M over three days, the holiday box office was catching fire. In its second weekend, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 held onto the top spot despite a steep fall with $43.6M over the Friday-to-Sunday period. More holdovers followed with Skyfall taking in $35.5M breaking the double-century mark and Lincoln with $25.7M posting the best average of any wide release. Two new PG-rated 3D films rounded out the top five. The animated film Rise of the Guardians bowed to $23.8M on its way to a somewhat disappointing $103.4M domestic and $304M worldwide. Ang Lee's Life of Pi debuted to $22.5M and finished with $124.9M from North America and a whopping $608M from across the world with China driving the success.

LAST WEEKEND's TOP 20

Last Updated: November 21, 2013 at 2:15PM ET

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