Weekend Box Office (September 16 - 18, 2011)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND Already scooping up plenty of advance sales from online ticketing sites, The Lion King 3D aims to conquer the box office like its original 2D predecessor did in the summer of 1994. The former top-grossing toon of all-time has been given a makeover and is heading to Blu-ray 3D on October 4 but makes a pit stop in theaters for a two-week-only run starting Friday. Plenty of parents are interested in experiencing Simba's story on the big screen again while introducing the fun to a whole new generation. Despite the home video availability right around the corner, the theatrical experience still makes for an exciting family activity at the start of this new school year especially since there has been nothing major for kids since July's The Smurfs. The extra high ticket prices will boost the grosses, but also repel some folks as paying $50+ for the whole family will be seen as too steep for many. Luckily, a regularly-priced 2D version will also play at selected multiplexes. Opening in more than 2,200 theaters, The Lion King 3D might debut to around $14M.

Ryan Gosling headlines the action drama Drive co-starring Carey Mulligan, Albert Brooks, Bryan Cranston, and Ron Perlman which will find FilmDistrict trying to walk the line between art fare and commercial cinema. Nominated for the Palme d'Or at Cannes this year, and taking home the Best Director prize, the violent R-rated film has been showered with praise from critics and enters the marketplace as one of the best-reviewed movies of the year. Normally that would give a hint of great legs to come as seen by The Town which hit theaters this very same weekend last year with similarly great praise. But the marketing has promised a fast-paced action thrill ride - like another Fast & Furious - while the film actually has a much slower pace with fewer car chases than ads would lead one to believe. Being a more artsy film, mainstream popcorn audiences pulled in by high-octane commercials and trailers may spread bad word-of-mouth if their expectations walking into the theater are not met.

Though a heartthrob to many, Gosling isn't exactly a bankable lead especially when the rest of the cast has even less box office pull. Though a solid product, Drive may show legs with the upscale crowd but could decelerate with more mainstream moviegoers after the first few days as people tell their friends how surprised they were. Opening in more than 2,700 theaters, Drive may take in about $12M this weekend.

Targeting the working mom demographic, The Weinstein Company's I Don't Know How She Does It goes after football widows with Sarah Jessica Parker in a comedy about a modern woman juggling career and family. Based on the popular book, the PG-13 film should appeal to only one quadrant with males and young women taking a pass. That's a hard demo to get right now with many moms already planning to introduce their young ones to The Lion King and others still interested in The Help and Contagion. Plus bad reviews have once again followed Parker to another film so those will repel ticket buyers too. Despite having the most theaters with 2,800+, I Don't Know How She Does It should struggle to fill up auditoriums and could debut with about $9M.

James Marsden and Kate Bosworth star in the suspense thriller Straw Dogs from Sony's Screen Gems unit. The R-rated pic about a married couple under attack while fixing up an old family home will face competition from a series of other films released over the past month meant to provide audiences with scares. Starpower is extremely low too and reviews have been mixed at best. Films like Drive and Contagion will provide competition so the outlook looks bleak. Breaking into around 2,400 locations, Straw Dogs may find itself with about $7M this weekend.

The virus thriller Contagion easily took over the box office last weekend and is hoping for another round on top. Warner Bros. could not have been too happy with the B- CinemaScore which may prevent a leggy run ahead. A 45% drop may occur giving the ensemble pic around $12M for the frame and $41M after ten days. Disney's The Help may slide by 35% to around $6M for a $146M cume to date.

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For a review of Contagion visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR Critical raves and early Oscar buzz turned Ben Affleck's The Town into a strong box office winner with a $23.8M debut at number one over a frame filled with new fall titles. The Warner Bros. release went on to score $92.2M but was shut out at the Oscars without even a Best Picture nod. Sony's Emma Stone comedy hit Easy A debuted in second with $17.7M while Universal's Shyamalan-produced thriller Devil opened in third with $12.3M. Final grosses were $58.4M and $33.6M, respectively. Tumbling from first to fourth was Sony's 3D sequel Resident Evil: Afterlife with $10M, off 63%. The Lionsgate toon Alpha and Omega bowed poorly in fifth with $9.1M on its way to a weak $25.1M final.

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Last Updated: September 15, 2011 at 11:00AM ET

Watch Gitesh Pandya's weekly box office preview on CNN International airing live each Thursday at 7:40pm ET.