Weekend Box Office (June 27 - 29, 2008)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND For the fifth consecutive frame, Hollywood offers up only two new wide releases on Friday. Pixar and Disney shoot for the number one spot with the animated sci-fi adventure WALL·E while Universal guns for an adult audience with its stylish actioner Wanted starring Angelina Jolie. The well-reviewed films will play to different demographics and their primary competitors are aging so each should have plenty of room to breathe. The pair could inject $100M in new business into the marketplace allowing an explosive June box office to end with a bang.

Pixar prepares for its ninth consecutive number one opener with WALL·E which tells of the last robot on Earth who stumbles onto an intergalactic adventure. On paper, the G-rated animated comedy is a tough sell in that it features very little human dialogue and instead relies on basic computerized chit chat. Plus the main character's best friend is a cockroach which doesn't make it any easier. But Pixar has pulled off the impossible by making this dirty broken robot into one of the year's most lovable characters. Plus the toon features the best love story of 2008 so far which means the pic has something to offer all four quadrants.

WALL·E won't break any animated opening weekend records, and it may even fall short of Pixar's own highs, but word-of-mouth will be spectacular allowing this droid to play all through the rest of the summer. Some folks may hesitate at first given the odd premise. Toons with cute talking animals and A-list celebrity voices are the ones that attract all audience segments upfront. But positive buzz will help the little droid post solid midweek numbers next week with all kids out of school and the sophomore frame which is the Fourth of July holiday session will deliver sparkling results too leading to a potent ten-day start.

Last summer, Disney used this same weekend to launch Ratatouille which scored overwhelmingly glowing reviews only to post one of the smallest debuts in Pixar history with $47M. The plot involving a rat that cooks in a kitchen may have given some moviegoers a pause. The previous June's Cars debuted to $60.1M and was met with more mixed feelings from critics and fans. Ever since Pixar scored its biggest hit in company history with 2003's Finding Nemo, it has seen the opening weekend averages of all its films steadily decline. The averages included $20,821 for Nemo, $17,917 for the following year's The Incredibles, $15,086 for Cars, and $11,936 for Ratatouille.

But the tide should shift this weekend. Even with Kung Fu Panda's recent success, parents are still eager to bring their kids to something fun and light as summer vacations start and this is the right product at the right time. Prospects for repeat business look rosy too. Rolling into 3,992 theaters, WALL·E could gather up about $63M this weekend.

Action audiences have been waiting for a summer film that lets the bullets fly so expect solid numbers for Universal's Wanted. Adapted from the popular series of comics, the R-rated film stars James McAvoy as a lowly cubicle dweller drafted by an elite group of assassins to become one of them. Though she gets the 'and' credit, Angelina Jolie is the true commercial anchor of the film while Morgan Freeman joins the cast in his usual respected elder statesman role. The studio has had a tricky time with the marketing since the lead of the film has no box office clout whatsoever and is unproven in the action genre. At the same time, the secondary star is the most bankable woman for this type of picture. No female star can attract a crowd to an action vehicle like Shiloh's mom.

Wanted has many positive attributes going into its debut frame. There is already a built-in audience for the source material, critics have been very upbeat in their reviews, and direct competition is not too strong given that the other wide openers from this weekend and last are all comedies. Moviegoers are hungry for an action offering that will give them something new. The film itself is slick and stylish which is exactly what sells right now. Plus it's a different type of action flick since it has no super heroes, no aged archaeologists, and no princes from fantasyland. The combo of cool visual effects and Jolie's starpower should propel the film to an impressive second place bow. Shooting its way into 3,176 locations, Wanted may open to about $36M.

Be sure to check back on Saturday for an update on the opening day grosses of both new releases.

Holdovers will get shoved aside by the two big W's this weekend. Current champ Get Smart got off to a sturdy start with a $38.7M bow and has held up well during the weekend with $5.1M on Monday and $4.8M on Tuesday. A 45% decline could be in order which would give Steve Carell and his fellow CONTROL agents about $21M for the frame boosting the ten-day tally to $78M for Warner Bros.

The Incredible Hulk became the summer's seventh film to join the century club on Tuesday. That compares to just four on the same day last year. The Marvel actioner should see another sizable drop as its audience flees for other films. A 50% decline would leave the Universal release with $11M and a 17-day tally of $117M which coincidentally was the same cume that 2003's Hulk scored in the same number of days.

Paramount's Kung Fu Panda from DreamWorks is the number three blockbuster of 2008 and will begin to feel the heat from a lovable little robot on Friday. The Jack Black-voiced comedy has displayed strong legs as evidenced by the declines of 44% and 35% over the last two sessions. People like this Panda. With WALL·E storming in, the martial arts pic may drop by 40% to $13M and lift its total to a cool $180M after 24 days. Studio stablemate The Love Guru should take a tumble and fall by 55% to around $6.5M for a ten-day sum of $26M.

For reviews of Get Smart and The Love Guru visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR A Pixar toon and a shoot-em-up actioner also debuted at the top of the charts. The critically-praised Ratatouille bowed at number one with $47M for Disney while Fox's Bruce Willis sequel Live Free or Die Hard opened in second with $33.4M and $48.4M over its five-day debut period. The rodent tale went on to capture $206.4M domestically and over $620M worldwide while Die Hard 4.0, as it was called overseas, grossed $134.5M from North America and more than $380M globally. Universal's pricey flop Evan Almighty sank to third with $15.1M, the MGM thriller 1408 scared up $10.7M, and Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer collected $9.1M for Fox.

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Last Updated: June 26, 2008 at 10:00AM ET

Watch Gitesh Pandya's weekly box office preview on CNN International airing live each Friday at 9:50am ET.