Weekend Box Office (May 21 - 23, 2010)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND For the fourth and allegedly final time, a digital green ogre attacks the box office on the weekend before the Memorial Day holiday frame. Shrek Forever After reunites all the familiar faces from the franchise including Mike Myers, Eddie Murphy, Cameron Diaz, and Antonio Banderas for another dose of humor and family fun. To make this different and worth trekking out again for, DreamWorks Animation is selling the PG-rated film as the final installment of the $2.2 billion-grossing series and has upgraded it to the popular 3D format that audiences seem to have no problem paying extra for.

Like clockwork, the Shrek series has popped out a new chapter every three years and has used the exact same launching pad each time utilizing Memorial Day as a holiday that cushions the blow on the second weekend. The first bowed to $42.3M in 2001, Shrek 2 debuted on a Wednesday in 2004 with $108M over the weekend period, and 2007's Shrek the Third bowed to $121.6M. Forever will enjoy three years of higher ticket prices plus the added bonus of 3D and IMAX surcharges. The last Shrek disappointed many fans so this new film will lose some of its core audience. The second and third chapters enjoyed the good will created by their predecessors. By opening the Tribeca Film Festival, number four got itself some extra press, but critics were not too kind as early reviews have been far from glowing.

With DreamWorks sibling How To Train Your Dragon finally fading, and Brendan Fraser's Furry Vengeance never even taking off, competition is light for Shrek Forever After. The brand name is still relatively strong, although this weekend will be a test of how much juice is still left in this franchise. But with Third leaving a bad taste and Forever carrying a premium ticket price of up to $20 (IMAX 3D in New York City), overall attendance should certainly be lower. Opening in over 4,000 theaters, Shrek Forever After could collect roughly $105M this weekend.

Saturday Night Live has had a spotty track record when it comes to transferring a small-screen sketch to the big screen. The latest Wayne's World wannabe comes in the form of MacGruber with Will Forte playing a MacGyver-like crime fighter taking on his evil nemesis after a nuclear warhead is stolen. With an R rating, the Universal release is aiming for older teens and young adults but the target audience could be limited since there are only so many people familiar with the character and its popularity isn't exactly off the charts.

Ryan Phillippe and Val Kilmer co-star but don't bring much box office muscle. Kristen Wiig, a rising star in the comedy world, could help boost female appeal. The studio's marketing push has been commendable, but the overall product has only so much potential. Unfunny trailers and commercials will only help so much, although reviews have been positive so far. Sales from young teens will be hurt by the rating. Universal has been going through tough times and they won't be getting easier this month. Opening in more than 2,400 theaters, MacGruber could take in about $15M this weekend.

After two weeks of easily beating back the competition, Iron Man 2 will drop out of first place but is still on a collision course with the quarter-billion mark. The Paramount release looks to fall by 50% this time around to about $26M which would raise the 17-day cume to a stellar $251M.

Russell Crowe's Robin Hood got off to a fine start last weekend but its B- CinemaScore grade indicates that audiences are not feeling so merry so word-of-mouth will not take this adventure drama very far. Direct competition is not too strong, though the mighty green ogre will distract adults with kids. Universal may suffer a 45% slide to about $20M putting the Ridley Scott pic at $68M in ten days with a much rosier picture overseas.

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For reviews of Robin Hood and Iron Man 2 visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR Winning the battle of the new sequels over the long Memorial Day holiday weekend, Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian debuted at number one with $70.1M over four days beating out Terminator Salvation which took in $51.9M over the same Friday-to-Monday span and $65.3M across the five-day period beginning with its Thursday bow. Final grosses reached $177.2M for Fox and $125.3M for Warner Bros., respectively, with global totals hitting $415M and $372M. Star Trek fell to third with $29.4M and Angels & Demons followed in fourth with $27.4M. Rounding out the top five was the only non-franchise option, the new spoof comedy Dance Flick, which opened to $12.6M over the long weekend on its way to $25.7M for Paramount.

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Last Updated: May 20, 2010 at 10:15AM ET