Weekend Box Office (May 20 - 22, 2005)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND Help us George Lucas, you're our only hope! Movie theaters from coast to coast are turning to the dark side awaiting a long-awaited rebound in ticket sales with the hugely-anticipated bow of the year's biggest megablockbuster, Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith. The sixth and final installment of the Jedi franchise was unleashed at midnight, Wednesday night, in 3,661 theaters across North America with a jaw-dropping 9,000+ total prints in circulation. Fox has included 79 venues that offer digital projection and is in a position to generate one of the largest opening weekend sales tallies in movie history.

Advance ticketing has been off the charts for Sith with midnight shows around the country selling out quickly forcing exhibitors to add more showtimes and prints. Some are even offering Episode III around the clock to satisfy the out-of-control demand from die-hard fans who have been waiting years to find out how and why the powerful Jedi Anakin Skywalker turns to the dark side of the Force and becomes Darth Vader, arguably the most popular screen villain of all time. What also is generating excitement like no other movie in years is the fact that Sith is the pivotal film that connects the new Star Wars episodes to the beloved older trilogy. Fans disappointed with Jar Jar Binks and the cheesy love story of the first two prequels, hope to be redeemed by seeing how it all ends.

The violent and sinister film brings back all the usual suspects of the new tales including Hayden Christensen, Ewan McGregor, Natalie Portman, Samuel L. Jackson, Frank Oz, and Jimmy Smits plus adds other familiar faces from a galaxy far, far away. As with the first, second, and fourth episodes, George Lucas writes and directs. And as is standard for the genre, sales from males will outweigh dollars spent by females.

Revenge of the Sith shows every indication that it will be a bigger blockbuster than Episode II was and may even approach the levels of Episode I. Aside from the usual structural advantages like higher ticket prices and more screens, Episode III also boasts the best reviews, will face the least competition, and has the added benefit of being the final Star Wars film in the 28-year history of the franchise giving fans a unique sense of urgency that wasn't there before. Visit the AMC Empire 25 in the heart of New York City where Sith is playing on an astounding ten screens and one realizes how vital this $113M film is to the motion picture industry at this moment in time. Theater owners expect to sell $5 Kit Kats at a record pace this weekend.

The darker and more violent story has resulted in a PG-13 rating and a caution flag has been waved for weeks telling parents not to bring their little younglings. This should hurt sales from the younger set, but increased interest from older fans will more than make up for the shortfall. Many fans turned off by Episode I that skipped out on Episode II will be back in full force this time. And since the picture delivers the goods, word-of-mouth is sure to be strong in the weeks ahead leading to substantial repeat business that will send Episode III soaring past the $300M domestic mark and hurdling towards the $400M one.

Calendars can make a big impact on a film's earning potential on opening weekend so the hits that most resemble Episode III's debut pattern are Episode II and 2003's The Matrix Reloaded. Both blockbusters were highly-anticipated sci-fi sequels that launched on a Thursday in mid-May on the weekend before the Memorial Day holiday frame. Attack of the Clones rushed out of the gate in 3,161 theaters with $30.1M on Thursday followed by $80M over the Friday-to-Sunday span for a four-day gross of $110.2M. A year later, the R-rated Reloaded attacked 3,603 cinemas with $42.5M on Thursday (including about $5M from showings on the previous night) and captured $91.8M over the three-day session for an even bigger four-day score of $134.3M. The middle Anakin pic had better legs reaching $310.7M domestically while the middle Matrix pic topped out at $281.6M. Both cumes included eventual Imax sales.

Although its opening was smaller, Episode II was the more impressive performer as it played in 442 fewer theaters with 2,500 less prints (6,000 vs. 8,517). Averaging out the stellar four-day grosses, Clones generated a 17% stronger per-print figure ($18,362 vs. $15,766). Revenge of the Sith already has 500 more theaters on opening weekend than Clones giving it a distinct advantage. Plus with recent action films fizzling out and megaplexes happy to clear out those screens to accommodate extra Star Wars prints, the concluding chapter of the trilogy marches into battle with a staggering print count giving it one of the largest armies ever for any film in history. Other megahits that saturated the market with more than 8,000 total prints like X2: X-Men United and the first two Harry Potter films opened on Fridays with weekends of $85-90M and $10,000-11,000 averages per print. Revenge of the Sith approaching a three-day print average of about $12,000 would not be out of the question.

An important factor in Sith's grossing potential is competition. Episode II enjoyed a scorching debut, however it still faced a mighty foe in Spider-Man which simultaneously grossed a stunning $45M in its third weekend drawing from mostly the same audience. Episode III's biggest competitior this weekend should collect one-third of that amount and its closest action competition should finish in the puny $5-6M range. This leaves smooth sailing for Sith to absorb all the business and monopolize the marketplace.

The promotional push orchestrated by Fox and its partners has been more powerful with this sixth and final Star Wars saga. Corporate sponsors such as Pepsi, Burger King, M&Ms, Cingular, and 7-11 have lined up to attach themselves to what should be the year's biggest blockbuster film. However, unlike in the past, ads feature normally serious Star Wars characters in comical settings like Chewbacca auditioning for ringtones or Darth Vader duking it out with some talking M&Ms. Lucas and company may have felt that everyone else has lampooned his characters over the last three decades so why not join in on the fun during his final ride. Although it may be cheapening the brand a bit, the non-stop promotion has bombarded moviegoers with constant reminders of the coming of the dark side and has saved Fox a ton of cash in the process.

And what do critics think of Revenge of the Sith? Overall, reviews have been the most positive of any film in the Jar Jar trilogy. Although not universal, the praise has conveyed a message to fans that this is the best Star Wars film since Empire Strikes Back with some, like The New York Times, hailing it as the best of the entire series. Strong reviews will only help Sith this weekend, especially with casual moviegoers who are not drawn into the sci-fi legacy but will go just to be a part of pop culture history. Bad reviews could have turned those dollars away.

Tapping into all audience segments this weekend, Revenge of the Sith will take on the record books and slash some milestones that dare stand in its way. Thursday's opening day gross will include all figures beginning at 12:01am and could reach about $40M. The Friday-to-Sunday span may surge to a monstrous $107M giving the final Star Wars pic a record four-day opening of $147M. Attacking 100 international markets as well this weekend, Episode III will dominate cinemas around the planet in hopes of becoming only the third billion-dollar-grossing movie ever.

Be sure to check back daily all weekend for box office updates on Episode III.

Daring to defy Darth and offer moviegoers another option is Warner Bros. with Dominion: A Prequel to The Exorcist which lands only in limited release on Friday. This R-rated thriller is the original prequel filmed by director Paul Schrader whose entire version was scrapped and then reshot by Renny Harlin becoming last summer's number one hit Exorcist: The Beginning. That story, also a tale of Father Merrin discovering demonic forces in British East Africa in the 1940s, opened in the top spot last August with $18.1M on its way to $41.8M. Stellan Skarsgård stars in both versions. Since the studio had the original attempt sitting on the shelf anyway, it decided to complete it, release it with little fanfare, and push it straight to home video. Dominion bows Friday in 110 theaters in a handful of top markets such as New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, Dallas, and Houston. A debut on a lower rung of the Top 20 should result.

When Episode II entered the marketplace three years ago it brought with it a steady flow of traffic helping holdovers to remain strong. This weekend's existing films may benefit as well from the new flood of moviegoers stepping into the multiplexes. After topping the charts last weekend, the Jennifer Lopez-Jane Fonda slugfest Monster-in-Law hopes to finish its sophomore frame a distant second. The New Line pic's core audience of adult women are the group least interested in Yoda and pals so competition should not be too fierce. A 40% drop would give Monster $14M for the frame and a solid $43M in ten days.

Kicking and Screaming's family audience will certainly be distracted by Sith but the PG-rated Will Ferrell comedy will stand as the major alternative for younger children who parents are being advised not to take to Star Wars. Universal could see a 40% decline to around $12M this weekend giving the soccer flick a decent ten-day score of $35M.

Despite a muscular opening, Focus Features' Jet Li actioner Unleashed should get hit by the Anakin tale which will rip into its core male following. A 45% decline would give the R-rated slave pic $6M over three days and a cume of $20M after ten days. Fox's Kingdom of Heaven is falling fast and a 45% drop to $5M could occur giving the Orlando Bloom epic $43M in 17 days. Crash has been holding up well playing to a more mature adult crowd. A 30% drop to $5M would leave Lions Gate with $27M after 17 days.

Take this week's Reader Survey on the opening weekend of Star Wars Episode III.

Be sure to read the annual BoxOfficeGuru.com Summer Box Office Preview highlighting the hits and misses of the upcoming movie season.


LAST YEAR Exploding on the scene with the second biggest debut in history was the runaway animated blockbuster Shrek 2 which took in a staggering $108M over the Friday-to-Sunday period and a jaw-dropping $129M over five days starting with its Wednesday launch. Exceeding all expectations, the DreamWorks juggernaut accounted for nearly two-thirds of all business over the weekend, spent two weeks at number one, and went on to capture $436.7M domestically and an eye-popping $915M worldwide to become the year's biggest hit. Tumbling down to second was the epic Troy with $23.9M followed by the monster thriller Van Helsing which took in $10.6M. Rounding out the top five were the late April hits Mean Girls and Man on Fire with $6.9M and $3.7M, respectively.

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Last Updated : May 19, 2005 at 12:30AM EDT