Weekend Box Office (May 17 - 19, 2013)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND The next major summer tentpole docks in North American multiplexes as the sci-fi sequel Star Trek Into Darkness debuts over an extended period meant to wow fans who are being counted on to spread positive buzz by the time the weekend comes. No other wide release will open giving the Paramount event pic the spotlight all to itself.

Four years after a popular left-for-dead franchise was successfully rebooted, cast and crew reteam for Into Darkness which sees director J.J. Abrams back in the captain's chair with a young cast led by Chris Pine and Zachary Quinto. The PG-13 film ups the numbers this time with its 3D conversion which will add several million to the weekend tally as this is a brand that many will pay extra for. IMAX will kick in some bucks too. The last Trek also had business from the larger format, but the sequel has more than twice the number of those screens thanks to the growth of the format over the years. Plus many scenes were shot with IMAX cameras.

The opening pattern for Darkness differs a bit from the 2009 flick so grosses will be spread out over more time. Last time, Paramount started the release with pre-shows starting at 7:00pm Thursday night ahead of a standard Friday release in May. The follow-up kicked off its release with Wednesday night shows only on IMAX starting at 8:00pm. Conventional theaters opened on Thursday starting with midnight shows on late Wednesday night. Darkness had a slow start as fanboys coming out for the first shows spent $2M on the IMAX showtimes and $1.25M on the midnights for $3.25M total. By comparison, the last Trek's Thursday night pre-shows which included all theaters but had no 3D surcharges was $4M. Prices today are much higher with New York City's Lincoln Square charging $21.50 per ticket for IMAX 3D.The new film's opening week release options went through some changes late in the game so audiences may not all have been aware of the earlier shows.

2009's Trek had an opening weekend of $75.2M Friday-to-Sunday and $79.2M including Thursday night pre-shows. It went on to have great legs finishing with more than three times its bow at $257.7M domestic. It's also had a healthy life on television and all the good will created over the years should ensure a larger opening this time. Nominated for four Oscars, it broadened the fan base and succeeded at reaching beyond the Trek and geek worlds even attracting solid female love over time. Most will want to see a new adventure with these characters.

But the Wednesday night pre-shows and the full Thursday opening will spread that audience out over a longer stretch of time. Reviews have been solid, fan anticipation has been big, and Paramount's marketing muscle has been substantial. Two weeks after Iron Man 3, summer movie fans are ready for another tentpole to rally behind. Produced for a budget of $190M, Into Darkness is now playing in 3,762 theaters.

With four years of 2D ticket price increases, more love for the brand, 3D surcharges, and an extra day of business, the full opening gross by Sunday night may rise by about 40% to the vicinity of $110M. That may breakdown to about $90M over the Friday-to-Sunday period and $20M from Wednesday night and Thursday.

Not all ticket buyers will be lining up for Kirk and Spock. Two-time champ Iron Man 3 still intends to be a player and settle into the runner-up spot fresh off of crossing the $300M domestic mark - and $1 billion global milestone - on Thursday. With Darkness being a direct competitor and taking away so many 3D and IMAX screens, the Marvel hero is sure to suffer a steep drop. But that would still leave a solid third weekend take. Iron Man might fall by 60% to about $29M giving Disney a stellar $331M after 17 days putting it into the Top 30 on the list of all-time domestic blockbusters.

Also performing very well, though with the opposite gender skew, is The Great Gatsby which has held up well midweek following a bigger-than-expected opening weekend. In fact, despite a $22M difference in the weekend grosses, Gatsby has trailed Iron Man 3 by only $200,000 or so each day on Monday and Tuesday and was roughly even on Wednesday. But the Leo pic earned a lackluster audience score so hype and curiosity may have already brought out the target audience upfront. A 55% decline would put the Warner Bros. hit at roughly $22M for the sophomore frame and $88M after ten days.

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LAST YEAR Dominating the box office for a third and final weekend in a row was the super hero behemoth The Avengers with $55.6M boosting the 17-day tally to a towering $457.7M. Opening in second place was one of the most expensive films of the year, the action flop Battleship, with $25.5M. The Universal release ended its run with just $65.2M domestically and $303M worldwide. Also opening to sluggish results was the comedy The Dictator with $17.4M heading to $59.7M for Paramount. Yet another May underperformer followed with Johnny Depp's Dark Shadows doing $12.6M for Warner Bros. Debuting poorly in fifth was the pregnancy pic What to Expect When You're Expecting with a weak $10.5M for Lionsgate ending with only $41.2M.

LAST WEEKEND's TOP 20

Last Updated: May 16, 2013 at 2:10PM ET

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