Weekend Box Office (March 3 - 5, 2006)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND Four new releases head into theaters as Hollywood prepares for the Academy Awards which will be held on Sunday evening. Bruce Willis leads the way with the action thriller 16 Blocks which will do battle with the comedy-music documentary Dave Chappelle's Block Party which looks to flex its muscles despite playing in half as many theaters as its three new classmates. Milla Jovovich breaks out her sword with the sci-fi action title Ultraviolet while the teen mermaid pic Aquamarine offers a different kind of girlpower.

Bruce Willis teams up with action director Richard Donner for the police thriller 16 Blocks. The PG-13 film finds the A-list star playing a troubled New York cop who must escort an eccentric witness from a police station to a courthouse where he will testify against a group a crooked cops. Mos Def and David Morse co-star. Willis typically attracts an older male audience with films like these although his appeal with adult women is not bad either. Teens and young adults are not expected to show up in large numbers. Warner Bros. has put in a marketing push that is common for a spring action title and Willis remains a bankable star in this genre. His last headlining film Hostage opened this time a year ago with only a modest push and grossed $10.2M on opening weekend with a $4,811 average. His turn in the ensemble noir pic Sin City helped deliver a top spot $29.1M opening and $9,016 average a month later.

16 Blocks launches in 600 more theaters than Hostage, but 500 fewer than City and should see a strong average in between the two. Three other new releases are cramming into theaters, however there is not too much overlap as Ultraviolet will skew to a younger action crowd, Block Party is gunning for those in search of a laugh, and Aquamarine could not have a more opposite target audience. Willis still has star wattage and audiences do like to see him in this type of role. Although one wonders who really was in charge of this particular film since the billing block lists seven different company names along with a dozen Executive Producers and Producers. Shooting into 2,706 theaters, 16 Blocks could open to about $17M this weekend.

One of America's most popular comedians heads to the multiplexes with the concert documentary Dave Chappelle's Block Party which Focus Features is unleashing on Friday. The R-rated film follows the funnyman as he puts together a neighborhood show of big stars to celebrate his success in showbiz. Success has been a mixed blessing for Chappelle. An avalanche of news coverage has followed the comedian from the debut of his smash hit series Chappelle's Show on Comedy Central to his recent "vacation" in Africa. Killer ratings, record-setting DVD sales, a fat salary, and a hit show left on hold have made for a compelling drama over the past year and fans can't wait to get more comedy from this master.

But with no new episodes of Chappelle's Show on the air, fans have only one place to go - their local theater. Sure Block Party is not of the same format as the TV show, but that won't stop fans from ambushing the multiplexes. Young men and African Americans make up key components of the core audience. This is an event film for many so excitement is high and the per-theater average will be super strong. Comedian-driven docs can lure big bucks. Spike Lee's The Original Kings of Comedy opened to $11.1M and a $13,051 average while Martin Lawrence Live: Runteldat bowed to $7.4M and a $9,806 average. Block Party will appeal to many of the same moviegoers and will sell out shows, at least for the first week. Reviews have been very positive which should help the situation too. Chappelle is a huge star, fans are craving anything new from him, and the payoff should be big this weekend. Celebrating in 1,200 locations, Dave Chappelle's Block Party could debut to about $14M.

This weekend's action won't be limited to just the boys. The tough-chick genre returns with Ultraviolet, a futuristic actioner starring Milla Jovovich as a mutant warrior of the late 21st century out to protect her race. The PG-13 film hopes to bring in a young male audience but will face some competition from Block Party and to a certain extent 16 Blocks. Films centering around action heroines have seen all kinds of responses from moviegoers. While most studios hope for Tomb Raider-type numbers, more recent releases have posted weaker numbers. Last year, Aeon Flux limped to a $12.7M opening and Elektra bowed to just $12.8M. As far as starpower is concerned, Ultraviolet does feature a star who has proven to be a bankable draw with this audience before. Jovovich's Resident Evil opened to $17.7M in 2002 and its 2004 sequel launched with $23M. Plus if there is any company that can sell this type of fare, it is Sony's Screen Gems unit. Still, Ultraviolet only has so much potential during this crowded weekend. Kicking its way into 2,558 theaters, the sci-fi action flick may gross around $12M this weekend.

Fox targets the young female quadrant with its mermaid saga Aquamarine which stars Emma Roberts, the niece of Julia Roberts, who brings with her a fan base from her Nickelodeon show Unfabulous. The PG-rated film should play mostly to pre-teen girls as interest from boys will be close to zero. Other kid-friendly spring films aiming for the same audience have found it difficult to pull in ticket buyers. Last March, Disney opened Ice Princess in a similar 2,501 locations and took in just $6.8M in its first weekend. The previous year saw Ella Enchanted bow to just $6.2M. Aquamarine is not high on starpower and its appeal beyond its core crowd is limited. A big splash may not result. Swimming into about 2,500 theaters, Aquamarine might debut to about $7M.

Last weekend, Madea's Family Reunion feasted on over $30M in its opening frame for a spectacular $13,688 average. A year ago, director Tyler Perry saw his hit comedy Diary of a Mad Black Woman fall by half in its second weekend despite the addition of some more theaters. Reunion could play out the same way. A 50% drop would give Lionsgate around $15M for the frame and a stellar $50M over ten days.

Disney's Eight Below held up well in its second weekend and this frame does not offer too much competition for families. A 25% decline to about $12M could result giving the adventure film $60M after 17 days. Sony's The Pink Panther has also been showing good legs and a 35% drop to $7M would leave the Steve Martin remake with an impressive $70M in 24 days.

Be sure to read the Oscar Spotlight column which features a one-on-one interview with Barry Mendel, producer of Munich which has been nominated for five Academy Awards including Best Picture. Check the Oscar Nominee chart which tracks the box office of all nominees.

For NEW reviews of Dave Chappelle's Block Party, Tsotsi, and Unknown White Male visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR A pair of new films enjoyed solid debuts at the top of the charts. Vin Diesel took the family route with Disney's The Pacifier which became a runaway success with a $30.6M opening weekend. The PG-rated comedy went on to gross $113.1M domestically and $195M worldwide. Bowing in second was John Travolta's caper flick Be Cool with $23.5M on its way to $55.8M for MGM. Hitch claimed third with $12.1M in its fourth weekend, Diary of a Mad Black Woman fell to fourth with $11M in its sophomore frame, and Million Dollar Baby placed fifth with $8.1M climbing 11% in sales after winning at the Oscars. In tenth place, the Adrien Brody thriller The Jacket opened to only $2.7M before finishing with a weak $6.3M.

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Last Updated : March 2, 2006 at 10:00AM EST