Weekend Box Office (February 13 - 16, 2015)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND All eyes are on the erotic drama Fifty Shades of Grey which will cash in on the enormous fan base that the best-selling book has created plus the hot media buzz which has followed the film for months. Curiosity will attract others and Valentine's Day is the time of year when men are most likely to give in and see a film they may not truly be interested in. Mo' money.

The R-rated pic with its explicit sex stands as a unique product in the marketplace. Marketing has been terrific and the use of Beyonce's music has been very effective in generating broad interest across many groups. Adult females will lead the way but solid numbers from other quadrants will give a boost too. Reviews have been more on the negative side, but for many fans, this one is critic-proof.

A big question for the weekend numbers will be erosion. How quickly will it fade? Certainly there is intense upfront demand and advance sales have been among the best in history. Thursday night will see the hardcore fans coming out for pre-shows which begin at 8pm. Friday is the full opening day and Saturday will be helped by Valentine's Day. If fans do not like the film, or if much of the audience is exhausted by then, then Sunday onwards could see large drops.

Both the date crowd and the Girls Night Out crowd will be out in full force here which provides more potential than standard female-skewing event films. Much of the Twilight audience will come out and support too. That vampire saga had PG-13 ratings, however the bulk of that audience is 17 or older now so the R won't matter as much. Entering 3,645 locations, Fifty Shades of Grey may find itself with around $75M this weekend over the four-day holiday span.

For those looking for violence of a non-romantic nature, Colin Firth headlines the spy actioner Kingsman: The Secret Service bringing a comic to the big screen. The R-rated film also stars Samuel L. Jackson as the villain and should play more male. Opening macho action flicks around V-Day has been common recently with last year's RoboCop and the previous year's A Good Day to Die Hard which reached the $25-29M range over their four-day holiday debuts. Kingsman boasts a less famous brand name here, plus the story and cast are very British giving the film only a minor American feel, however it does have more female appeal than those others.

Reviews have been generally good but Firth is no bankable lead when it comes to opening a film in the U.S. Kingsman will be key in measuring how much his high respectability will translate into ticket sales. The Oscar winner's sex appeal will help in selling this to couples who find Fifty Shades too risqué. Many recent action offerings have had it tough and young men specifically have been difficult to get out to theaters so there is no easy sell here. Opening in over 3,100 locations, Kingsman might take in around $24M over the four-day period.

Falling from first place will be the hit toon The SpongeBob Movie which made a huge splash last weekend in its debut proving how strong and relevant the brand still is. The four-day Presidents Day holiday weekend is always a busy one for kidpics because of schools closing and the following week sees strong dailies too. SpongeBob might see its four-day take fall to about $44M which would boost the cume up to $108M.

American Sniper is all set to vault past the $300M mark this weekend - only the second R-rated film in history to do that joining The Passion of the Christ. Look for the Warner Bros. smash to remain in the top five despite the two new R offerings entering the marketplace. The Friday-to-Monday figure may reach about $20M for another great hold lifting the total to a jaw-dropping $307M.

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LAST YEAR The monster animated smash The LEGO Movie held steady at number one with a fantastic hold over the long holiday weekend with an incredible $62.5M across four days boosting the ten-day cume to $142.8M for Warner Bros. Sony's two new R-rated remakes of 1980s films followed with the romantic comedy About Last Night debuting to $27.8M and the action pic RoboCop bowing to $25.1M. Final grosses reached $48.6M and $58.6M, respectively. The studio also took fourth with The Monuments Men which grossed $17.9M in its sophomore session. Universal's new romance Endless Love opened in fifth with $14.4M on its way to a $23.4M final.

LAST WEEKEND's TOP 20

Last Updated: February 12, 2015 at 4:50PM ET

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