Weekend Box Office (February 3 - 5, 2012)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND Three new films face off over Super Bowl weekend hoping to give movie fans something different to see, at least on Friday and Saturday. One of the biggest nationwide distractions of the entire year, the Big Game crushes moviegoing with Sunday sales typically tumbling by 65-75% from Saturday for all films thereby making the overall weekend grosses a little smaller than they would be otherwise. Fox targets young males with the superhero pic Chronicle, CBS Films goes after young women with the period chiller The Woman in Black, and Universal aims for a broad audience with its animal rescue drama Big Miracle.

The found footage genre has grown in recent years and with the right concepts, plenty of success can result as with hits like Cloverfield and the Paranormal Activity films. Plus these bargain-priced pictures can be very profitable if they truly excite teens and young adults. Fox enters this field with Chronicle which tells of three high school students who gain super powers after making an underground discovery and watch their lives change in different ways because of it. The PG-13 rating and 83-minute running time will help make the sci-fi pic accessible to teenagers and give theaters one more showtime per day compared to most other films. Reviews have been terrific which may prompt people to take a chance on this no-star vehicle.

Some great trailers and TV spots have created excitement with the target audience thanks to a what-if scenario that is appealing. However over the past year or two, younger moviegoers have mostly been coming out in large numbers for high-profile sequels and brands often skipping out on more original movies, even if they are critically acclaimed. Last month's The Devil Inside proved that a found footage film with no pre-existing brand can draw big crowds, but Chronicle is not likely to follow the same path. Plus the Super Bowl will eat into part of the weekend business and rival freshman Black will take some of the female audience out. Landing in over 2,800 theaters, Chronicle might open in the neighborhood of $15M.

For the first time in a decade, Daniel Radcliffe hits theaters outside of his signature wizard role with a film that has a shot at one of the top slots on the charts. The 22-year-old Harry Potter star anchors the supernatural thriller The Woman in Black which is targeting young women with a spooky period chiller as an alternative to all the weekend's football hype. Taking a page from Paramount's successful TV campaigns for The Devil Inside and Paranormal Activity pics, CBS Films has recently been running spots featuring audience members - nearly all teenage girls and twentysomething women - enjoying the terrifying but entertaining moments in a screening along with testimonials that urge people to go and see the film.

Ad materials certainly give off a creepy feel and historically, female-friendly fright flicks have done well as counter-programming on Super Bowl weekend. In fact Sony and its Screen Gems unit used to own the frame every year. Competition is not too fierce for young females, however Black is not part of a brand that can reliably bring out ticket buyers. And with so many getting burned a few weeks ago with Devil, some of the target audience may hesitate here. But some Potter fans may take interest and help the grosses. Reviews have been generally positive. Debuting in over 2,700 theaters, The Woman in Black might open to around $13M.

The second Alaskan animal movie in as many weeks, Big Miracle opens Friday in the least number of theaters among the new titles and is heading for a modest debut. The PG-rated film stars Drew Barrymore and John Krasinski and tells the true story of large mammals trapped under ice in 1988. Ads have very prominently been telling audiences that it is "inspired" by a true story. The stars are not necessarily commercial draws these days so overall excitement will not be terribly high. Some families may come out since there is nothing major at the moment catering to this demo, but most will save their money and wait for the bigger event pictures. Universal is only going out into about 1,900 runs so a weekend debut of around $7M seems likely.

Last weekend, Liam Neeson scored the first of what will likely be many number one hits for 2012 with the survival thriller The Grey. The Open Road release should not face too much direct competition for older adults from the new releases, but Sunday's big game will certainly take a bite out. A 45% drop would put the action flick at about $11M for a ten-day total of $36M.

The vampire actioner Underworld: Awakening held up very well last week and may slip another 50% to about $6M in its third round. The cume would rise to $55M for Sony. Lionsgate's Katherine Heigl comedy One for the Money got punished by film critics and audiences were not that much more pleased. The bail bondswoman pic could lose half of its business and collect roughly $6M this weekend leading to a ten-day sum of $20M.

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Check the chart for the Oscar Nominees and Grosses and watch the trailer for Finding Nemo 3D.

For a review of War Horse visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR The suspense thriller The Roommate topped the sluggish box office with a $15M debut for Sony leading to a $37.3M final. Universal's competing new release Sanctum, the James Cameron-produced 3D adventure, bowed in second with $9.4M on its way to a $23.2M final. Holdovers rounded out the top five with Paramount's No Strings Attached taking in $8M, Oscar front-runner The King's Speech following with $7.7M, and Sony's action pic The Green Hornet collecting $6M.

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Last Updated: February 2, 2012 at 12:05PM ET

Watch Gitesh Pandya's weekly box office preview on CNN International airing live each Thursday at 7:40pm ET.