Weekend Box Office (January 27 - 29, 2012)

by Gitesh Pandya

THIS WEEKEND Apparently last week's trio of action films wasn't enough so Hollywood is rolling out another three-pack this Friday making for a crowded menu of options for thrillseekers. Liam Neeson leads the way with his tundra survival pic The Grey, Sam Worthington counters with his crime thriller Man on a Ledge, and Katherine Heigl packs a gun for the bail bondswoman action-comedy One For the Money. Kicking the year off with three straight weeks of overperforming hits, the North American box office should settle down a bit this time unless audiences once again find one film to be exceptionally exciting.

Rebranding himself in recent years as the thinking man's action hero, Liam Neeson is back again with his third early-year man-in-peril thriller in four years with The Grey. The R-rated pic is hoping to become another number one hit for the actor after 2009's Taken and last year's Unknown with opened to $24.7M and $21.9M, respectively, in the January-February corridor. Neeson's face has been getting bigger and bigger on each film's poster showing how solid of a commercial draw he has become, especially with mature adults who nowadays make up a bigger chunk of the box office pie. Grey, an Alaskan plane crash survival thriller, should work well at this time of year and its star has become bankable these days. Reviews have been very good so that should certainly help with this demographic and give rookie distributor Open Road a nice little hit. But some may feel that Neeson is just back in the same type of film again and may take a pass. Making its way into more than 2,700 theaters, The Grey may bow to around $14M.

On the other end of the review spectrum is the man-on-a-ledge thriller Man on a Ledge which has seen little love from film critics. The PG-13 film from Summit stars Sam Worthington as an ex-cop and an ex-con who puts himself on a hotel ledge in New York City to try to prove his innocence. Elizabeth Banks, Ed Burns, and Ed Harris co-star. Though a male-skewing action film, Man offers up a decent amount of female appeal so adult couples might take interest. But Worthington is out on a ledge in more ways than one as for the first time he anchors an action film without the safety net of a big franchise. Avatar, Clash of the Titans, and Terminator: Salvation all had their own pre-existing brands to help sell tickets so the Australian actor who hasn't yet perfected the American accent was not riding solo. Here he is as the other stars won't do much to pull in a crowd. Heavy action competition and bad reviews will limit potential, but effective trailers and TV spots will help bring in short-term cash. Opening in well over 2,000 theaters, Man on a Ledge could debut to about $12M.

After duking it out this weekend, Worthington and Neeson reunite for the epic adventure Wrath of the Titans opening March 30.

Katherine Heigl stars as a cash-strapped gal that takes a job as a bail bondswoman in the fish-out-of-water comedy One for the Money. Unlike most of her other recent films, this PG-13 pic has no major co-stars to lend any box office muscle so it's all on the Knocked Up star's shoulders here. Lionsgate has kept it away from the press so expect her usual bad reviews to start trickling in online once critics get the chance to pay and see it - if they dare. Young women make up the target audience here and the top ten will be packed with more male-skewing action titles so there is an opportunity for counter-programming. The former Grey's Anatomy star doesn't try to win rave reviews, instead she aims to entertain the mainstream everygal trying to juggle career and a love life. Since rising to fame nearly five years ago, Heigl has yet to anchor an all-out flop so she is dependable to a certain extent and always hits double digit millions on opening weekend. Opening in over 2,700 theaters, One for the Money may bow to about $11M.

Last weekend, Kate Beckinsale stepped back into the vampire leather for the first time in six years with Underworld: Awakening and fans rewarded her with a solid number one debut. But genre sequels attract most of their audiences upfront and new action competition will lead to a sizable decline. A 60% tumble would give the Sony release about $10M for the session and $43M after ten days.

The Fox title Red Tails was the third consecutive film to overperform this year. Word of mouth is good but plenty of new choices for adult men hit theaters on Friday. A 45% slide could occur giving the George Lucas-financed film around $10M as well putting the cume at $34M after ten days. Mark Wahlberg's Contraband has been an impressive performer for Universal and a 45% dip would put it at about $6.5M pushing the sum to $56M.

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Watch the NEW trailer for Finding Nemo 3D and check the chart for the Oscar Nominees and Grosses.

For a review of War Horse visit The Chief Report.


LAST YEAR The religious thriller The Rite debuted at number one with $14.8M leading a slow frame on its way to $33M for Warner Bros. After topping the box office the previous weekend, the sex comedy No Strings Attached held up well in its sophomore session slipping just 32% to $13.4M. Jason Statham's action remake The Mechanic opened in third with $11.4M for CBS Films heading to a $29.1M finish. Sony's The Green Hornet followed with $11.2M while The King's Speech jumped up 41% to $11.1M following its 12 Oscar nominations and full expansion into 900 extra screens.

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Last Updated: January 26, 2012 at 11:15AM ET

Watch Gitesh Pandya's weekly box office preview on CNN International airing live each Thursday at 7:40pm ET.